Insights
The Associate and VP Squeeze
Why mid-level talent is the hardest hire today, and what happens in a few years if banks stop training Analysts.
Ask our clients which hire is hardest right now and the answer is almost always the same: Associate and Vice President. Behind that squeeze, a second pressure is building. As AI takes on more junior work, banks are hiring fewer Analysts – and today’s Analysts are tomorrow’s Associates and VPs.
Why mid-level talent is scarce today
Several years of smaller intakes and reduced MBA Associate hiring have thinned the pipeline. The slowdown of 2023 and 2024 also meant many junior bankers worked on fewer live deals. At the same time, the strongest Associates continue to leave for Private Equity, Infrastructure and Private Credit funds. With deal activity now recovering, demand for experienced mid-level bankers has returned faster than supply.
The AI effect on Analyst hiring
Banks are using AI for tasks that used to define the Analyst role: first drafts of pitch books, comparables, research and model set-up. Some banks have reportedly cut junior Analyst classes by as much as two-thirds, and senior leaders have been open that the technology will change, and in some cases remove, roles. The efficiency gains are real. The long-term cost is less discussed.
The impact in a few years
A thinner Associate and VP bench. An Analyst hired in 2026 is an Associate by around 2029 and a VP by the early 2030s. Smaller classes now mean fewer experienced mid-level bankers in three to seven years, just when today’s VPs are moving up.
Higher cost of mid-level talent. Scarcity drives compensation. Expect more bonus buy-outs, guarantees and counter-offers for proven Associates and VPs.
Funds lose their feeder pool. Private Equity, Infrastructure and Credit funds recruit heavily from bank Analyst and Associate programmes. Fewer trained bankers means fiercer competition for them, and more funds building their own junior programmes.
A judgement gap. Analysts learn how deals really work by building models and materials by hand. If AI produces the first draft, fewer bankers develop that instinct, and the VPs of the 2030s may have less hands-on experience to draw on.
A weaker AI pipeline. Junior bankers are often the heaviest and most creative users of new tools. Cutting the Analyst pool also cuts the people best placed to turn AI into an advantage.
What firms can do now
Keep hiring and training Analysts, but redesign the role so AI handles the repetitive work and people spend more time on judgement, clients and live deals. Invest in retention for strong Associates, build lateral hiring pipelines, and look at adjacent talent pools such as Transaction Services, Corporate Development and, for AI and Digital Infrastructure, engineers and technologists.
What candidates should do
Be fluent with AI tools, but make sure your fundamentals – modelling, valuation and deal execution – are strong. Take ownership of workstreams early. The coming scarcity will reward bankers who build real deal experience, and the window to move to a fund remains Analyst 2 to Associate 1.
Sources: Fortune, Banks lay groundwork for workforce cuts as AI takes hold (June 2026).